No cut and no increase—but the mortgage market is still moving.
With everything going on around tariffs, inflation and now the bond market, I've had people asking whether mortgage rates could start moving higher again.
I don't pretend to know exactly where rates will go next. But if you think you may buy within the next 30, 60 or 90 days, I would seriously consider getting pre-approved now and asking your lender or mortgage broker to hold a rate for you.
Depending on the lender, that rate hold may last 90 to 120 days—taking you into early December or possibly early January. If rates move higher, you have some protection. If they move lower, you can ask whether the better available rate can be applied. Either way, you know what today's numbers look like and can search without guessing.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% yesterday. If you only read the headline, the takeaway is that nothing changed. But in the same announcement, the Bank said financial conditions have tightened since July and long-term bond yields have moved higher in Canada and around the world.
Those details matter because the overnight rate is only one part of the mortgage picture. The Bank is also watching inflation, higher energy prices and renewed trade uncertainty. With those pressures pulling in different directions, it decided to wait rather than force another move.
My honest take is that this gives us stability, not certainty. Your best decision still depends on your financing, your timing and the particular part of Ottawa you're buying or selling in.
Why the Bank Chose to Wait
The Bank is trying to balance two risks. Inflation is still close to 3%, and higher oil prices and trade friction could keep costs elevated. At the same time, raising rates would put more pressure on households and could slow the economy unnecessarily.
So this wasn't a clear signal that rates are about to rise or fall quickly. It was the Bank saying it wants more evidence before choosing a direction. Its next scheduled decision is October 28.
For buyers and sellers, the useful takeaway isn't to guess the Bank's next move. It's to make sure today's numbers work before making a decision.
Why a “Hold” Can Still Mean Higher Fixed Rates
Variable-rate mortgages generally follow the Bank of Canada more directly, so this week's announcement doesn't provide immediate relief there.
Fixed rates aren't tied directly to the overnight rate. They are influenced by the bond market, and the five-year Government of Canada benchmark yield finished September 1 at about 3.35% after moving higher through the final week of August.
That means the Bank can hold while lenders still adjust their fixed-rate offers. It doesn't guarantee that fixed rates are heading sharply higher, but it does mean a June pre-approval or rate hold may not reflect what is available later this fall.
If you're pre-approved, find out exactly when your rate hold expires. Most last 90 to 120 days. And remember that penalties, prepayment options and flexibility can matter just as much as the lowest advertised rate.
Ottawa Still Isn't One Single Market
The latest complete Ottawa numbers still describe a balanced market, but with more homes for buyers to choose from than we had a year ago.
Homes sold in July: 1,325, up 0.2% year over year
Average sale price: $683,308, down 1.6% year over year
Active listings: 4,678, up 9.3% year over year
Months of inventory: 3.5, balanced territory
The citywide average only tells part of the story. Detached homes have generally held up better, while townhomes and condos have faced more inventory and more price sensitivity.
I see the same affordability trade-off coming up with buyers comparing a townhouse in Kanata or Nepean against stretching the budget for a detached home.
The average price also fell more sharply from June than the benchmark measure did. That doesn't mean every Ottawa home lost the same amount of value in a month. Average price changes whenever the mix of homes sold changes, which is why your neighbourhood, property type and competition matter much more than one citywide number.
Well-presented homes that make sense at their asking price can still move quickly. Homes that start too high are more likely to sit while buyers compare their options.
Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board / CREA MLS® statistics, July 2026.
For Buyers: There Is More Room to Be Selective—Just Stay Ready
Buyers generally have more time to compare homes, include reasonable conditions and negotiate than they did in the fastest parts of the market. But the best-priced homes can still attract competition.
First, find out when your rate hold expires. If your pre-approval was completed in June, a 90- or 120-day hold may be getting closer to its end than you realize.
Second, make sure the purchase works at today's payment. There's no reason to rush into the wrong home, but a plan that only works if rates fall is carrying more risk than it may appear.
Once the financing is clear, we can treat the search as market education: compare neighbourhoods, see what different property types buy and move confidently only when the right home comes along.
For Sellers: Pricing Properly Matters More Than Predicting Rates
A rate hold may help keep some buyers engaged, but I wouldn't assume buyer budgets will suddenly become larger later this fall. The homes getting the strongest response are still the ones that compare well on price, condition, presentation and location.
With more listings available, the first week matters. If buyers feel a home is overpriced, many won't wait around for a later reduction—they'll compare it with the alternatives and keep moving. I'd rather have your first ten showings working for you than hope your fortieth fixes the launch.
If you're thinking about selling this fall, the useful question isn't whether rates might be a little lower in a few months. It's how your home would compete with what buyers can choose from right now.
Come See Me Sunday at 42 Sundback Lane
I'll be hosting an open house this Sunday, September 6, from 2:00 to 4:00 p.m. at 42 Sundback Lane in Katimavik.
Now offered at $465,000—recently reduced from $480,000. This updated, move-in-ready townhome offers three bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, an attached garage, a private fenced backyard and unusually low monthly condo fees of $245.86.
Thinking about a move, a mortgage renewal or simply trying to understand what this means for your neighbourhood? Email me or call 613-869-6274. I'm always happy to give you an honest opinion. No pressure.
